The overall underreporting factor for is easily calculated for parenterally administered drugs (like the modRNA vaccines):

[Overall underreporting factor] = [Total number of doses administered] / [Total number of reports]

There were 613 million doses administered by October 5th according to Bloomberg. According to VAERS there are 892,655 filed reports about vaccinations before that point in time.

613000000 / 892655 = 686.7

This is the precise overall underreporting factor.

Now if we look at the report proportions for headaches, we find that roughly 22% of these reports mention headaches. If we look at the little reliable data there are on the subject, this more or less lines up with the incidence proportion.

If a symptom's incidence proportion is equal to it's report proportion, then the symptoms URF is equal to the overall URF. Let's assume 22% is correct for both report and incidence proportion. Then the URF for headaches is also 686.7.

Now unfortunately there are medical concepts which incidence proportions are higher than their report proportions (or vice versa). Bell's palsy is one such case, since it received media attention. It differs by a factor of 4.4.

However I consider the incidence proportions determined in some studies no more reliable than the report proportions I see in VAERS. This is a side effect of being familiar with the data. VAERS is pretty randomized.

At an underreporting factor of close to 1000, we can imagine that there are countless factors influencing a person's decision to report a side effect. The quality of the event is just one factor and not a very critical one it seems.

Unless we are talking about extreme cases like death, we can safely assume the proportions more or less line up.

But even if we divide all report proportions by 100 we are still talking about inacceptable risks for many patients who aren't particularly at risk to suffer a severe course of disease. The highest overrepresentation factor I found was not a 100, but 4.4 for Bell's palsy.

edited Dec 4, 2022The overall underreporting factor for is easily calculated for parenterally administered drugs (like the modRNA vaccines):

[Overall underreporting factor] = [Total number of doses administered] / [Total number of reports]

There were 613 million doses administered by October 5th according to Bloomberg. According to VAERS there are 892,655 filed reports about vaccinations before that point in time.

613000000 / 892655 = 686.7

This is the precise overall underreporting factor.

Now if we look at the report proportions for headaches, we find that roughly 22% of these reports mention headaches. If we look at the little reliable data there are on the subject, this more or less lines up with the incidence proportion.

If a symptom's incidence proportion is equal to it's report proportion, then the symptoms URF is equal to the overall URF. Let's assume 22% is correct for both report and incidence proportion. Then the URF for headaches is also 686.7.

Now unfortunately there are medical concepts which incidence proportions are higher than their report proportions (or vice versa). Bell's palsy is one such case, since it received media attention. It differs by a factor of 4.4.

However I consider the incidence proportions determined in some studies no more reliable than the report proportions I see in VAERS. This is a side effect of being familiar with the data. VAERS is pretty randomized.

At an underreporting factor of close to 1000, we can imagine that there are countless factors influencing a person's decision to report a side effect. The quality of the event is just one factor and not a very critical one it seems.

Unless we are talking about extreme cases like death, we can safely assume the proportions more or less line up.

But even if we divide all report proportions by 100 we are still talking about inacceptable risks for many patients who aren't particularly at risk to suffer a severe course of disease. The highest overrepresentation factor I found was not a 100, but 4.4 for Bell's palsy.